What a difference a day makes in Guatemala

Hope is an amazing thing. You don’t even know that it is missing until suddenly you have it.

On June 26th, hope unexpectedly descended upon many Guatemalans in exile. The day before was election day in Guatemala. There were three top Presidential candidates, none likely to dramatically challenge the status quo. But the final results sent a shock wave of hope.

Here is a little context. In 2007, after years of effort, Guatemala established the CICIG, the first of its kind international body to accompany the attorney general’s office in the investigation and prosecution of corruption cases, in particular cases that involved organized crime and the state. In the context of the CICIG’s presence, the Guatemalan justice system held accountable a president, a vice-president, corrupt officials, and a former dictator responsible for genocide. In turn, these justice officials did their work in the context of activists and journalists who investigated and made public acts of corruption. At incredible personal risk, these actors, each in their own lane, did the seemingly impossible. They created an environment in which the rich and powerful were held accountable.

However, after a little more than a decade, the rich and powerful regained their footing and struck back. First, they dismantled the CICIG, undercutting international support for those investigating and prosecuting cases. Then, one-by-one they went after prosecutors, lawyers, judges, journalists and activists who sought to end corruption and impunity. Some were jailed and too many others were driven into exile.

It has been painful to watch these energetic and once power forces for good in Guatemala be sidelined outside of their country. What role is there for a former Guatemalan judge or prosecutor living in another country? This is a question that too many have asked. Despair was setting in.

Coming into this year’s presidential election hope for change has been difficult. In the lead-up, four presidential candidates who might have challenged the status quo were ruled ineligible. Recently, the founder and publisher of the El Periodico newspaper, one of the country’s most important independent voices, was sentenced to six years in prison. The paper, known for its investigation of government corruption cases, was shuttered.

While more than 20 candidates were on the ballot, the outcome was assumed to be between three from the traditional elite. In Guatemala, a presidential candidate must win with over 50% of the vote to avoid a run-off.

The unexpected was the outcome. Frustrated with all of the shenanigans leading up to the election, voters left nearly a quarter of the ballots cast blank or spoiled. The result will be a run-off on August 20th between Sandra Torres, from the National Unity of Hope party (UNE) who came away with 16% of the vote; a traditional candidate, she has run for president three times before. And, Dr. Bernardo Arévalo, a dark horse candidate from the Movimiento Semilla (Semilla), who came in second with 12%. Semilla formed as a result of massive anti-corruption protests in 2015 and Arévalo, has promised to allow those exiled from the justice sector to return. The party’s original candidate, former Attorney General Thelma Aldana, was ruled ineligible and is currently in exile.

The second-round election on August 20th will be a real race, one where the winner is not preordained.

The morning after the Presidential election, as I spoke with one of those Guatemalans living in exile. I heard both hope and an overwhelming sense of relief. Relief from a reality that one has been forced to but can’t change from the outside of the country. A hope that Guatemala can change and that one day those exiled can go home.

*First published in MexicoToday.com 6/27/23.